概要信息：

股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
市场投资我们需要注意什么?
What do market investment we need to 
pay attention to
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim.Rogers)
你喜欢投资市场吗？你对投资有热情吗？当我 21 岁开始接触投资市场时，我就知道这是我
这辈子最有兴趣的领域。因为喜欢，所以有热情；因为充满热情，所以我花很多时间在做
研究，研究竞争对手、研究市场信息、研究所有可能影响投资结果的因素。
Do you like to invest in the market? You have enthusiasm for investment? When I was 21 began 
to contact the investment market, I know this is I this life the most interested fields. Because like, 
so passionate; Because of passion, so I spent a lot of time doing research, research competitors, 
market information, all possible factors that affect investment results. 
 
找到热情所在，就找得到机会。所以每个人都要问问自己：最喜欢的领域是什么？如果喜
欢园艺，就应该去当园艺家；喜欢当律师，就朝这个方向努力前进。不要管别人怎么说，
也不论有多少人反对，反正只要是自己喜欢的，就去追寻，这样就会成功。
Find the passion, find it. So everyone should ask yourself: favorite field is what? If you like 
gardening, you should go to when the gardener; Like as a lawyer, and then towards that 
direction. Don't tube what others say, no matter how many people are opposed to, anyway as 
long as you like, go to pursue, so that you will succeed. 
 
我强调“专注”，在做投资决策前，必定要做很多功课，也因此我并不赞同教课书上所说
的“多元投资”。看看全世界所有有钱人的故事，哪一个不是“聚焦投资”而有的成果？
I emphasize "focus", before making investment decisions, must have a lot of homework to do, so 
I don't agree with "pluralistic investment" to teach the book said. Look at the story of all the 
world's rich, which is not a "focus on investment" and some results? 
 
投资成功致富是来自事前努力的做功课，因为做足了功课，了解投资的产品价格被低估才
买进，所以风险已经降到最低。并不是分散投资就叫做低风险，如果你对于所投资的市场、
股票不熟悉，只是把鸡蛋分别放在不同的篮子里，这绝对不是低风险的投资，谁说只有一
个篮子会掉在地上？
Investment success is to get rich from prior efforts to do my homework, because to do their 
homework, know price undervalued investment products to buy, so to minimize the risk. Not 
diversification is called a low risk, if you for the investment market, stocks are not familiar with, 
just put eggs in different basket, this is definitely not low risk investment, who says there is only 
one basket will fall to the ground? 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
 
就好比有人认为分散投资于 50 家公司，一定比投资于 5 家公司的风险低。但是是这样吗？
你不可能完全掌握 50 家公司的详细状况，相对来说，如果只集中投资在 5 家公司，就可以
做比较仔细的研究。所以说，5 颗鸡蛋放在一个相当稳固、安全的袋子，一定比放在 50 个
不牢固的袋子要好得太多了。
Just as some people think that diversification in 50 companies, must be lower than the risk of 
investment from five companies. But is that so? You can't fully grasp the detailed situation of 50 
companies, relatively speaking, if only focus on investment in five companies, can do more 
careful research. So, five eggs in a fairly solid, security bags, must be better than on 50 bags of 
unstable too much. 
 
尤其我并不是一个喜欢冒险的人，相反地，我讨厌冒险，就是因为这样，所以我才要做很
多功课。成功投资者的方法，通常是什么也不做，一直到看到钱放在那里，才走过去把钱
捡起来。所以除非东西便宜、除非看到好转的迹象，否则不买进。当然买进的机会很少，
一生中不会有多少次看到钱放在那里。
Especially I'm not an adventurous man, on the contrary, I hate, is because of this, so I didn't want 
to do a lot of homework. Successful investors, usually don't do anything, has been to see the 
money in there, went to pick up the money. So unless something cheaper, unless you see signs 
of improvement, or not to buy. Buying opportunities, of course, very few, not many times in my 
life see money in there. 
 
所以我并没有任何导师，全部仰赖自己的研究与判断。
So I don't have any teacher, all rely on their own research and judgment. 
 
一旦我清楚知道自己在做什么时，是不会有风险的。当然市场有可能在我决定投资、也投
入金钱后继续修正，这时候我会回过头来检视，我究竟有没有彻底了解、做足功课，如果
没有，那么风险是来自于我没有做好研究。倘若我有确实做好功课，那么面对市场超跌的
状况，我会投入更多金钱。所以风险高不高的症结在于有没有做功课，而不是集中投资就
是高风险。
Once I know what you're doing, is not a risk. , of course, the market may continue after I decided 
to invest in, also, money, this time I will come back to review, I have a thorough understanding, 
do their homework, if not, I haven't finished the risk comes from the study. If I have do do your 
homework, in the face of the status of the super market fall, I will spend more money. So is the 
crux of the high risk is not high if do their homework, rather than focus on investment is high risk. 
 
至于该怎么做足功课呢？那就要看是哪方面的议题，如果是跟栽培作物有关，就要去注意
有多少农民、有多少库存农作物、这个领域谁在做什么规划、市场上有什么需求上的变化、
是不是才刚播种、刚施肥？……找出包括生产、需求的基本因素，事实上，这些问题可以
适用到各种行业上。
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
As for how to do their homework? That is about to see is what kind of issue, if it is associated 
with crop cultivation, must pay attention to the number of farmers, how many inventory crops, 
who is doing what the field planning, what is the change of demand on the market, just just 
fertilization seeding,? ...... Find out including the basic factors of production, demand, in fact, 
these problems can be applied to all kinds of industry. 
 
另外，媒体也可以当作一个很好的指针，媒体向来是反应大众的看法、反应大家已经知道
的事情，所以当媒体都在做类似的报导时，这就表示该项信息已经被充分传递了。
In addition, the media can also be as a good pointer, the media has always been a reaction mass 
view, you already know, so when the media are doing similar reports, which means the 
information has been fully passed. 
 
就好像 1999 年的时候，随便找一本杂志、随便哪一个广播或电视媒体，都在提“.com”这
个新经济将带来不同的投资思维，加上每个人都在投资.com，这就是一个强烈的警讯。真
正有价值的信息其实是充分不足的信息，当某些信息得花很多力气才能取得，这样的信息
才可帮助你获利。
As of 1999, grab a magazine, to either a radio or television, are in the ".com "the new economy 
will bring different mindset, and everyone in the investment. Com, this is a strong warning. Truly 
valuable information is lack of sufficient information, when have to spend a lot of effort to get 
some information, such information can help you. 
 
所以说，大家都知道的信息，存在当中的机会相当有限。像近几年，大家热烈讨论新兴市
场，投资人就要去思考，新兴市场的好是否已经反应了呢？大家是不是都进去投资了呢？
如果你发现身边的人，都在买新兴市场的股票或基金，这就表示市场已经在反应了，想要
从中获利，当然有限。
So, information is known to all, existence of opportunity is quite limited. In recent years, like, a 
heated discussion in emerging markets, investors will be to think, emerging markets have a good 
response? Everyone is all in to invest? If you find the people around, are buying stocks or funds 
in emerging markets, which means the market has been in the reaction, want to profit from it, of 
course. 
 
不过，中国大陆的状况除外，因为中国大陆股票从 2005 年 6 月起涨到现在，不过 10 几个
月的时间，相较于很多新兴市场股市已经涨了好几年，中国大陆股市尚未过热。
Except the status of the mainland China, however, as the Chinese mainland stock since June 
2005 up to now, but ten months, compared to many emerging market equities have risen for 
several years, the mainland stock market has not yet been overheating. 
 
我还是要强调，信息愈少、机会就愈多。举个例来说，当你翻开华尔街日报，你会发现整
版都在讲股票、讲基金，但是商品(commodity)信息却只有一小块，可见商品未被重视，这
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
就是商品的机会所在。而且问问身边的人，有谁在投资商品？如果答案是极少数，这就更
证明了商品的投资价值。
I still want to stress, the less information, the more chance. For example, when you open the 
Wall Street journal, you will find that the whole speaks in stocks, funds, but it is only a small 
piece of information (commodity) goods, goods have not been seriously, this is a great 
opportunity for goods. And ask the people around, who is in the investment goods? If the answer 
is very few, it is proved that the investment value. 
 
投资致富的轨迹在于，做自己喜欢的事，拥有热情，愿意不断的学习、做功课，发掘别人
还没有看到的机会，这是我永恒不变的投资哲学。而跟随群众是永远不会成功的。
Rich investment track is that do the thing that oneself like, have passion, willing to constantly 
learning, doing homework, the excavation of the others have yet to see opportunity, this is my 
permanent investment philosophy. And follow the crowd is never successful. 
 
 
●学习历史和哲学吧，干什么都比进商学院好；当服务员，去远东旅行。
Study history and philosophy, do everything better than into the school of business; When the 
waiter, a trip to the far east. 
●发现低买高卖的机会的办法，是寻找那些未被认识到的，或未被发现的概念或者变化。
"Find" buy low/sell high opportunity, is to find those who have not been realized, or the concept 
of undetected or changes. 
●每当中央银行在维护某种东西的低价位时，聪明的投资者就会反其道而行之。不管赌什
么，永远跟中央银行相反。
"Whenever something the central bank in the maintenance of low prices, smart investors will do 
exactly the opposite. No matter what the gambling, always in contrast with the central bank. 
●供给就是价格，投资的铁律就是正确认识供求关系。
The iron law of supply is low prices, investment is the correct understanding of supply and 
demand. 
 
罗杰斯其人——亚拉巴马的土孩子
Rogers, Alabama's children 
曾被报纸上称做“投资天才”的吉姆&S226;罗杰斯，生于 1942 年的亚拉巴马，是五个兄弟
中的老大，家教很好。他在德摩保利斯(Lkilllopol 初长大(这是一个当时只有 7800 人口的小
镇)，他家的电话号码是 5，非常简单，以至于罗杰斯在耶鲁大学读书时，往家里打电话，
接线员怎么也不相信还有这么简单的电话号码。他的父亲是一个古老的亚拉巴马州家族的
成员，为博登化学公司管理一家生产埃尔默胶和甲醛的工厂。他的祖母格兰带丝在四五十
年代是俄克拉荷马雨果市的一个通讯记者。在那个男权至上的社会里，她就像一个初生牛
犊。一个小巧玲戏的女士(身高不过 5 英尺)总是大踏步地走过警长的办公室，采访那些杀
人犯。但结婚后，她早年的梦想就变成了褪色的回忆。罗杰斯说在他还是个孩子的时候，
他就能看出他祖母内心深处的挫折感——一种愤怒。他祖母知道她错过了她最好的机会，
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
并且明白生活能给出的比她已经得到或能够得到的多得多。罗杰斯很爱他的祖母，也不想
走她的路。这些认识促成了他后来在华尔街的成功。
Investment was the newspaper called "genius" Jim & role; Rogers, was born in Alabama in 1942, 
is the eldest of five brothers, family education is very good. He in DE mo poly (Lkilllopol grew up 
in the early (this is a small town there were only 7800 people), his home telephone number is 5, 
very simple, that Mr Rogers at Yale university, home phone, how to also don't believe there is 
such a simple operator number. His father is an ancient Alabama family members, for borden 
chemical company management produces Elmer glue factory and formaldehyde. His 
grandmother grand silk in the 50 s is Hugo in Oklahoma city, a correspondent. In the society the 
male supremacy, she is like a newborn calves. A small play lady (5 feet tall but) always strides 
through the sheriff's office, interview the murderer. But after marriage, her early dreams, we 
become faded memories. Rogers said when he was a child, he can see his grandmother inner 
frustration - a anger. His grandmother knew she missed her best chance, and see what life can 
give than she has been or will be able to get a lot more. Rogers loves his grandmother, also don't 
want to go her way. These contributed to the success of his later on Wall Street. 
罗杰斯是在德摩保利斯镇上读的高中，成绩很好，一直是班里的尖子。罗杰斯考入耶鲁大
学，1964 年毕业，他一生热爱学习，很想继续他的学业，曾考虑过去上医学院、法学院和
经济学院，也申请过几家研究生院，并在学校和几家公司的招聘会上洽谈过，其中一位来
自多米尼克公司的招聘员和他谈得很投机，于是罗杰斯就去了多米尼克公司，此时的罗杰
斯还分不清债券和股票。但是他很快就喜欢上了证券业务，并爱上了华尔街。他一向希望
能尽可能多地了解时事，在这里他吃惊地看到，在这条街上有人会因为他估算出智利爆发
的革命会使铜价上涨而付给他钱，当时的他刚从学校出来，很穷，急需要钱用，华尔街对
他来说简直就是一座金山。
Rogers is in the poly read high school in town, you have done very well, has always been the top 
of the class. Rogers was admitted to Yale university, graduating in 1964, his life, love of learning, 
very wants to continue his studies, considering the past medical school, law school and the 
school of economics, also applied to several graduate school, and in schools and companies job 
fair negotiation, one of the recruiter from Dominic companies and he talked very speculative, 
then Rogers to dominique company, Rogers also confuse bonds and stocks at this time. But he 
soon fell in love with the securities business, and fell in love with the Wall Street. He always hope 
to be able to as much as possible about current events, he was surprised to see here, there will 
be someone in the street because he estimate Chile the outbreak of the revolution will make 
copper prices and pay him money, he just came out from the school, is very poor, need money 
badly, Wall Street is a golden hill for him. 
罗杰斯说：“我所喜欢它的原因不是它能挣钱，因为在那个时候我没有钱，但是，假如你
聪明，使用你的智慧，并且关注这个世界，那么，你就能得到一切。在那时，我对世界上
正在发生的事情有非常浓厚的兴趣，经常贪婪地阅读。你不必打领带，也不必加入乡村俱
乐部。你可以做你想做的事，并得到相应的报酬。我认为，那是我所见过的最有趣的事。”
夏天过完后，他取得了去牛津大学学习的奖学金，在那里他上的是巴利奥学院，学习政治、
哲学和经济学。作为一个矮个子，他成了从亚拉巴马的德摩保利斯出生的第一位曾在泰晤
士河上参加过牛津——剑桥赛艇比赛的舵手，并赢得过比赛的冠军。
Rogers said: "the reason why I like it not it can earn money, because at that time I don't have 
money, but, if you're smart, use your wisdom, and pay attention to the world, so you can have it 
all. At that time, I know what is happening in the world have very strong interest, often greedily 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
read. You don't need to tie, also don't have to join the country club. You can do what you want 
to do, and get the corresponding reward. I think that's the most interesting thing I've ever seen." 
After the summer before, he has gained a scholarship to Oxford University, where he was on the 
Leo college, learn politics, philosophy and economics. As a short, he is from Alabama, the poly, 
born of the first ever on the river Thames in Oxford, Cambridge boat race of the pilot, and won 
the champion of the game. 
罗杰斯说话方式很谦逊，几乎有些害羞，但是能够迅速而准确地抓住要点。他总是穿一件
运动夹克和不相配的裤子，不穿大衣，甚至在纽约严寒的冬天也是这样。1965 年夏天，他
又回到多米尼克合伙公司，在该公司的场外交易部工作。在接下来的两年，他从军了。在
此期间，他用指挥官的钱买了股票。由于赶上牛市，回报相当可观。服完役后，他又回到
了纽约，先在巴赫公司工作，然后为迪克&S226;吉尔德工作。在那里工作时，他明白了一
个道理：“你最好懂得数字。在 20 世纪 60 年代有许多人并不知道他正在做什么。就现在
的情况而言，许多人正在赚钱，但他们不知道是怎么赚来钱的。”再后来他又去了纽约格
和伯曼公司。
Rogers speak very modest, almost some shy, but able to quickly and accurately grasp the point. 
He always wore a sports jacket and pants doesn't match, don't wear coat, even in the cold winter 
in New York. In the summer of 1965, he returned to Dominic partnership, in the company of the 
otc trading department. In the next two years, he joined the army. In the meantime, he 
commander of the money to buy shares. Returns a considerable due to catch up with the bull 
market. After the service, he returned to New York, in Bach's work in the company first, and then 
to dick & role; Jill's work. Working there, he understand a truth: "you'd better know the Numbers. 
In the 1960 s, there are many people don't know what he was doing. For now, many people are 
making money, but they don't know how to make money." Then he went to New York and 
berman company. 
1970 年在安霍德和圣&S226;布雷克罗德工作时，他认识了乔治&S226;索罗斯。他们组成了
投资领域中最成功的双子星。开始的时候，他们只有自己两个人和一个秘书，索罗斯做交
易，罗杰斯专门进行研究。他们合作之后没有一年是亏损的。从 1969 年 12 月 31 日到
1980 年 12 月 31 日，索罗斯基金的赢利率达到了 3365％，而同时的标准普尔综合指数上
升了大约 42％。这个基金的成功关键在于独立思考。罗杰斯说：“我们感兴趣的不是某个
公司在下个季度的利润或者是 1975 年铝的运输的前景，而是更广泛的社会、经济。政治因
素，在将来的某个时候如何改变某个产业或某个股票板块的命运。我们所预见的和当前的
股票市场价格之间存在的差别越大越好，因为这样使我们更赚钱。”这也是华尔街所称的
头脚颠倒的方法。
In 1970 AnHuoDe and st & role; Blake rod is working, he met George & role; Soros. They formed 
in the field of investment of the most successful duo. In the beginning, they only two and a 
secretary, soros, Rogers specifically for research. They are not cooperation after one year at a 
loss. From December 31, 1969 to December 31, 1980, soros fund win rate reached 3365%, while 
the standard & poor's composite index rose about 42%. Is the key of the success of the fund to 
think for themselves. Rogers said: "we are not interested in a company in the next quarter profits 
or transportation, the prospect of 1975 aluminum but a wider range of social, economic, and 
political factors, at some point in the future how to change the fate of a certain industry or a 
certain stock plate. We foresaw and the greater the difference between the current stock market 
price, the better, because it makes us more money." This is also referred to in Wall Street's head 
feet upside down. 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
1980 年，罗杰斯 37 岁时，他决定退出股市，去尝试另一种事业。他在华尔街工作时，只
顾埋头工作，使自己尽可能多地掌握世界范围内的资金、货物、原材料和信息的流通。
1968 年，他揣着 600 美元初入市场，到 1980 年退出时已拥有了 1400 万美元。由于工作太
投入，也为此付出了代价，他的前两次婚姻都失败了，妻子无法理解他那种与生俱来的拼
命工作的热情。当他把一笔钱投入市场运转时，他怎么也不会想到家中对新沙发的需要。
因为他一直认为投资比消费强。罗杰斯说自己是一个“极度的孤独者，特立独行者，厌世
者。”他渴望通过旅行去了解这个世界，真实地弄清脚下的这个星球。他曾于 1984 年和
1986 年两次来过中国。他认为骑车(摩托车)旅行最好，这样可以边骑边看，去触摸这个世
界，感受它。这要比坐在汽车的铁壳子里真实的多。他在哥伦比亚商业研究生院教授有价
证券分析时，对他的学生说：“学习历史和哲学吧。干什么都比到商学院学习好；当服务
员，去远东旅行。”只有这样，才能对生活有一个全面的了解。1990 年 3 月 25 日，一个
阳光灿烂的春日，罗杰斯终于开始实现他的梦想了，和年轻漂亮的女友一起踏上了环球旅
行的征程。
In 1980, Rogers, 37 years old, he decided to pull out the stock market, try another career. He 
worked on Wall Street, just working hard, make oneself as much as possible to master the world 
within the scope of capital, goods and raw materials and the flow of information. In 1968, he 
entered the market with $600, the exit has $14 million in 1980. Due to work too hard, also paid 
the price, his first two marriages failed, his wife couldn't understand the inherent enthusiasm of 
hard work. When he put a sum of money in the market operation, he wouldn't have thought of 
the need for new sofa in the home. Because he has been think investment than consumption. 
Rogers said he is a "extremely lonely, a maverick, surrender." He is eager to travel through to get 
to know the world, and truly find out at the foot of the planet. He was in 1984 and 1986, been to 
China twice. He think cycling (motorcycle) travel is best, so that you can ride while see, to touch 
the world, feel it. Which is more than the iron carapace of real car. He in the Columbia graduate 
school of business professor securities analysis, said to his students, "the study history and 
philosophy. Doing is better than to the business school; a waitress, a trip to the far east." Only in 
this way, can have a comprehensive understanding of life. On March 25, 1990, a sunny spring day, 
Rogers finally began to realize his dream, and a beautiful young girlfriend went on a journey to 
travel around the world. 
罗杰斯天才的投资生涯可以追溯到他 5 岁时。他从父亲那里学会了拼命工作，弄明白了不
管想要做出什么，都要付出努力去实现它。5 岁那年，他得到了第一份工作，在棒球场上
拣空瓶。1948 年，他获得了在少年棒球联合会的比赛中出售饮料和花生的特许权。在那个
很缺钱的年代，他父亲借给了他 6 岁的儿子 100 美元，用来购置一台花生烘烤机。罗杰斯
说：“这笔贷款是我步入生意场的启动资金。”5 年后，他用所赚的钱还清了贷款，并且
在银行存了 100 美元，对一个 11 岁的孩子来说已相当富有了。他和父亲一起用这 100 美
元到乡下去做投机生意，把这些钱买了价格正日益飞涨的牛犊。并出钱让农民饲养这些牛
犊，希望次年出售并卖个好价钱。由于买点太高，这次投机失败了。直到 20 年后，罗杰斯
才从书本上明白失败的原因，由于朝鲜战争使他们在牛犊上的投资被战后价格的回落吞噬
得一干二净。
Rogers investment career of genius can be traced back to him at the age of five. He learned from 
her father's hard work, understand no matter what, want to make the effort to attain it. 5 years 
old, he got his first job, pick an empty bottle on the baseball field. In 1948, he received the selling 
drinks in little league game and the concession of peanuts. S in that very short of money, his 
father lent him $100, the son of 6 years old to purchase a peanut baking machine. Rogers said: 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
"the loan is my into business start-up capital." Five years later, he used the money to pay off the 
loan, and saved more than $100 in the bank, for a 11 year old child is quite rich. He and his father 
together using the $100 to the countryside to do speculation, put the money to buy the soaring 
prices are increasingly a calf. And paying farmers keep these calf, hope the following year sale 
and sell a good price. Due to some high, speculative failed this time. Until 20 years later, Mr 
Rogers from books to understand the cause of the failure, because of the war in north Korea 
make their investment in the calf consumed by the post-war prices. 
也许是幼小时的投资经历在他的脑海中留的印象太深，他一直认为学经济的最好办法是投
资做生意。他在哥伦比亚经济学院教书时，总是对所有的学生说，不应该来读经济学院，
这是浪费时间，因为算上机会成本，读书期间要花掉大约 10 万美金，这笔钱与其用来上学，
还不如用来投资做生意，虽然可能赚也可能赔，但无论赚赔都比坐在教室里两三年，听那
些从来没有做过生意的“资深教授”对此大放厥词地空谈要学到的东西多。尽管如此，罗
杰斯的课讲得还是非常棒的。沃伦&S226;巴菲特曾参加过他的一个班，巴菲特说：‘那是
绝对令人激动的……罗杰斯正在重复着本&S226;格雷厄姆对年前的工作——将真实的投资
世界带入教室。’”罗杰斯教的不是那种经济学院里通常学的金融课，那种由教授们空想
出来的理论，而他们跟真正的金钱发生的惟一关系就是每月的工资单。他教授学生他所知
道的东西，教学生按他投资的方法去投资，按他的思路去看市场和机会。这不是正宗的传
统的理论，讲什么复杂的经济数学模式、股市和指数的导数。但罗杰斯用这一套思维方式
不仅赚到了钱，而且保住了钱不会被赔掉。“金融杀手”索罗斯的所向披靡，已在亚州金
融危机中让很多国家损失惨重，他的成功理论与罗杰斯不无渊源，虽然罗杰斯后来离开了
索罗斯。现在“已经退休”的罗杰斯，管着他自己的钱，他说：“每个人都梦想着赚很多
的钱，但是，我告诉你，这是不容易的。”他将他的很多成功都归于勤奋。当他还是一个
专职的货币经理时，他就说：“我生活中最重要的事情是工作。在工作做完之前，我不会
去做任何其他事情。”当他和索罗斯合作时，他住在里佛塞德大道一所漂亮的富有艺术风
格的房子里，每天骑自行车去哥伦市环道上的办公室，在那儿，他不停地工作——10 年期
间没有休过一次假。
May be young at the time of investment experience leave impression on his mind too deep, he 
always say that the best way to learn the economy is doing business investment. He teaches at 
Columbia school of economics, he always said to all the students, should not have to read the 
school of economics, it is a waste of time, because the opportunity cost and cost about $100000 
during reading, rather than the money to go to school, it is better to used to do business 
investment, though is likely to earn may compensate but both make compensate for two or 
three years than sitting in the classroom, listen to those who have never done business professor 
"senior" to talk about the want to learn more. In spite of this, speak Rogers's class is very good. 
Warren & role; Buffett has participated in one of his class, Mr. Buffett said: 'it is absolutely 
exciting... Rogers is repeating this & role; Graham for years ago work - will the real investment 
world into the classroom. '" Rogers teach is not the kind of financial economics college, usually 
learn lesson, that kind of dream by professors from theory, and the unique relationship between 
them with real money in monthly payroll. He teaches the student what he knew, teaching 
students according to his investment approach to invest, according to his way of thinking to go to 
the market and opportunities. This is not authentic traditional theory, about the complex 
economic mathematical model, the stock market and index of derivative. But Rogers with this 
way of thinking is not only to earn the money, and keep the money will not be lost." Financial 
killer "soros invincible, have been to many countries in the Asian financial crisis, he has the 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
success of the theory with Rogers, Rogers, though it later left the soros. Now" retired "Rogers, 
with his own money, he said:" everyone dream to make a lot of money, but, I tell you, this is not 
easy. "He will be much of his success is attributed to hard work. When he was a professional 
money manager, he said:" the most important thing in my life is work. Before the work was 
finished, I will not do any other things. "When he and George soros, he lives in the Buddha, the 
road in a beautiful rich artistic style of the house, everyday ride a bike to elder brother Aaron city 
ring road office, where he kept on working, never take a vacation during the 10 years. 
罗杰斯成功的关键在于他那新奇的投资方法。他的投资是以整个国家为赌注。如果他确定
一个国家比众人相信的更加有前途时，他就会在其他的投资者意识到之前，先把赌注投入
到这个国家。罗杰斯的整个一生，从耶鲁到哈佛再到华尔街，先后学习了地理、政治、经
济，并钻研了历史，他相信这些学科是相互关联的，他把所学到的知识都用到了全球证券
市场的投资上。他一直在等待时机，密切注意着一些国家及其投资市场，随时准备行动，
寻求那些可以把他的投资翻两番、三番、四番的地方。
Rogers, the novelty of his investment is critical to the success of the method. His investment in 
the whole country to bet. If he sure a country is more promising than the people believe, he will 
be before other investors to realize, put into the country. Rogers's whole life, from Yale to 
harvard to Wall Street, has studied the geographic, political, economic, and delve into the history, 
he believes that these disciplines are interrelated, he put all the knowledge learned in the global 
stock market investment. He had been waiting for an opportunity, pay close attention to some 
countries and their investment market, ready for action, for those who can put his investment 
quadruple, three times, four times. 
 
奥地利
Austria 
1984 年，罗杰斯在奥地利的投资是一次惊人之举。他抱定信念，认为在维也纳投资股票的
大好时机来了。当时奥地利的股票市场非常不景气，几乎达不到 23 年前，也就是 1961 年
的一半水平。当时许多欧洲国家都通过刺激投资来激励它们的资本市场。罗杰斯认为奥地
利政府也正在准备这样做。他相信，欧洲的金融家们正在密切注视四周，看有什么东西还
没有动——将很快对奥地利进行投资。为了了解这座毫无生机的奥匈帝国的前首都的情况。
他到奥地利的最大银行的纽约分理处，向那儿的经理打听如何才能投资奥地利的股票。他
们的回答是“我们没有股票市场”。作为奥地利最大的银行，竟然没有人知道他们国家有
一个股票市场，更不知道该如何在他们国家的股市上购买股票。1984 年五月，他亲自去了
奥地利，在维也纳作了一番调查。在财政部，他向人询问有没有政治派别或其他的利益集
团反对放开股票市场和鼓励外国投资。当得到答案是没有时，他觉得不能错过时机。罗杰
斯在奥地利的交易市场一个人也没见到，那里死一样的静寂，一周只开放几个小时。
In 1984, Rogers investment in Austria is a terrific. He assumed the belief that in good time to 
invest in stocks of Vienna. Austria's stock market was very bad at that time, almost amounted to 
less than 23 years ago, half of the 1961 level. At that time, many European countries by 
stimulating investment to motivate their capital markets. Mr Rogers believes the Austrian 
government is also prepared to do so. He believes that European financiers are keeping a close 
eye on all sides, see what also did not move, will soon to invest in Austria. In order to understand 
the lifeless former capital of the austro-hungarian empire. He a small local branch in New York to 
Austria's largest bank, ask the manager there how to investing in stocks of Austria. Their answer 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
is "we don't have the stock market". As Austria's largest bank, did not know that their country 
has a stock market, more do not know how to buy shares of the stock market in their country. In 
May 1984, he himself went to Austria, made an investigation in Vienna. In the Treasury, he asked 
the people who have political parties or other interest groups opposed to let go of the stock 
market and encourage foreign investment. When get the answer is no, he can't miss the 
opportunity. Rogers in Austria market one also didn't see, where the dead silence had fallen only 
open a few hours a week. 
在信贷银行的总部他找到了交易市场的负责人奥托&S226;布鲁尔。在这个国家的最大银行
里，他一个人操纵股票，甚至连秘书都没有。看到这种情形，罗杰斯觉得自己简直就是一
个暴发户。当时的奥地利只有不到 30 种股票上市，成员还不到 20 人。然而在第一次世界
大战以前，奥匈帝国的股票交易市场上有 4000 人，是那时中欧最大的，市场交易额也占头
份，和今天的纽约和东京差不多。
He found in credit bank headquarters trading market, the head of the otto & role; Brewer. In the 
country's largest bank, he a person manipulating stock, even no secretary. See this kind of 
situation, Rogers felt was a nouveau riche. The Austria were less than 30 shares, members of less 
than 20 people. However, before the first world war, the stock market of the austro-hungarian 
empire, there are 4000 people, is one of the largest, at that time China and the eu market 
turnover also account for a head, similar to today's New York and Tokyo. 
罗杰斯在奥托的带领下见到了当时主管股票市场的政府官员沃纳&S226;梅尔伯格，他向罗
杰斯保证，国家的法律将会有所变动，以鼓励人们投资股票市场，因为政府已经意识到他
们需要一个资本市场。政府的具体做法是：降低红利的税金。就是说如果你将红利投入到
股市中，将享受免税待遇。相当于税金可以赊欠，如果用于投资股市的话。并且政府为福
利基金和保险公司在股市中入股作了特殊规定，这也是以前没有过的。其他已经这样的国
家，都取得了显著的成效。另外就地理位置而言，奥地利实际上就是德国的一个郊区。假
如这里的市场开始启动。德国人会把这儿炒得火热。所有这些详细的调查，促使罗杰斯在
奥地利投下了他的赌注。按照他的投资理念：如果你对一个国家有信心，就应该购买交易
市场中所有像样的股票。如果你再经营有力，这些是都会升值的。在奥地利，当时资产负
债表显示状况良好的公司他都入了股——一家家庭装修公司，一些金融和产业公司，银行，
还有其他建筑公司和一家大的机械公司。几个星期后，罗杰斯在报上陈述了应该投资奥地
利的理由。于是有从四面八方打来的电话(伦敦。慕尼黑、纽约等)要求买进奥地利的股票。
那一年奥地利的股票市场上涨了 125％，以后上涨得越来越多。有人说是罗杰斯才撼动了
奥地利这一沉寂的股票市场，唤醒了一个睡美人。到 1987 年春天，罗杰斯将他在奥地利的
股份全部售出时，股市已上涨了 400％或 500％。罗杰斯曾一度被称为“奥地利股市之父”
。
Rogers in otto saw was in charge of the stock market under the guidance of the government 
officials Werner & role; MEL, he promised Rogers, the law of the country will change, in order to 
encourage people to invest in the stock market, because the government has realized that they 
need a capital market. The government's particular way is: reduce the taxes of dividend. That is 
to say if you will be dividend into the stock market, will enjoy duty-free treatment. Equivalent to 
a tax credit, if to invest in the stock market. And the government for welfare funds and insurance 
companies to buy into the special provisions in the stock market, this also is not before. Other 
countries have such, have achieved remarkable results. Also in terms of geographic location, 
Austria is actually a suburb of Germany. If the market began to start. Germans will have Fried 
right here. All these detailed investigation, prompt Rogers in Austria dropped his bet. According 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
to his investment philosophy: if you have confidence in a country, you should buy all decent 
stock in the market. If you run again, these are will rise. In Austria, the balance sheet shows that 
he is in good condition of the company shares -- a family to decorate company, some financial 
and industrial companies, Banks, and other construction companies and one of the big 
machinery co., LTD. A few weeks later, Mr Rogers stated in the paper the reasons should invest 
in Austria. So have a phone call from all directions (London, Munich, New York, etc.) required to 
buy shares in Austria. That year, the stock market up 125% of Austria, rise more and more in the 
future. Some say Mr Shook the Austria this silence of the stock market, woke a sleeping beauty. 
By the spring of 1987, Rogers will all sold his stake in Austria, the stock market is up 400%, or 
500%. Rogers was once known as the "father" of Austria market. 
 
投资判断
Investment judgment 
罗杰斯通过调查、旅行，依靠渊博的历史、政治、哲学及经济学知识对不同国家进行分析，
判断出所要投资国家及股票行业的风险和机会。他的主要判断准则有五个方面：
Rogers through investigation, travel, relying on the profound history, politics, philosophy and 
economics analysis of different countries, determine what to invest in countries and stock 
industry risks and opportunities. He is one of the main criteria are five aspects: 
1.这个国家鼓励投资，并且比过去运转得好，市场开放，贸易繁荣。
1. The state encourages the investment and running well than in the past, open markets, trade 
prosperity. 
2.货币可以自由兑换，出入境很方便。这在他环球投资旅行过程中体会很深。
2. Currency can be freely convertible and travel is very convenient. In the process of investment 
in his universal travel experience is deep. 
3.罗杰斯认为，21 世纪的最显著特点是人口、货物、信息和资本的流动性将大得惊人。
21 世纪经济学的主题将是通过货币兑换实现资本控制，只有当市场是自由的，脱开了任何
束缚，本国货币具备合理的价值时，人们才会自然而然地开始动作：开采绿宝石，出口到
法国，换取法郎，然后再把法郎卖给那些愿意进口葡萄酒或拖拉机的人。如果拥有法郎的
人不愿把东西卖给他们，那么葡萄酒和拖拉机进口商就需提高价格，直到卖方无法拒绝。
拉美人走在非洲人前面的原因就是货币自由兑换。
3. Rogers believes that the most significant characteristic of the 21st century is the mobility of 
population, goods, information and capital will be staggering. Economics in the 21st century will 
be the theme of the capital control was achieved by currency exchange, only when the market is 
free, release any bondage, the value of their currencies have reasonable, people will naturally 
start action: mining turquoise, exported to France, in exchange for francs, then sell francs to 
those who would like to import wine or tractor. If have francs they are reluctant to sell things to 
them and then wine and tractor importers need to raise prices, until the seller can't refuse. Latin 
americans walk in front of the africans is currency convertibility. 
4.这个国家的经济、政治状况要比人们预想的好。
4. The country's economic and political situation is better than people had expected. 
5.股票便宜。
5. Stocks are cheap. 
罗杰斯对国内股票的投资选择，和他对一个国家的投资判断一样，通常都是从行业的整体
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
情况出发。他发展了一个广泛的投资概念，买下他认为有前途的某一个行业的所有能买到
的股票。这和他通常买下一个国家的所有股票的方式一样。那么，他又是如何判断一个行
业的呢？罗杰斯说：“发现低买高卖的机会的办法，是寻找那些未被认识到的，或未被发
现的概念或者变化。通过变化而且是长期变化，并不仅仅是商业周期的变化，寻找一些将
有出色业绩的公司，哪怕当经济正在滑坡之时。”他所寻求的变化具体有四种表现：
Rogers for domestic equity investment options, and his investment judgment of a country, 
usually proceed from the overall situation of the industry. He developed the concept of a wide 
range of investment, buy one he believes promising industry all can buy shares. This and he 
usually buy all the stock in a country in the same way. So, he is how to determine a industry? 
Rogers said: "find" buy low/sell high opportunity, is to find those who have not been realized, or 
the concept of undetected or changes. Through the change and change for a long time, it is not 
only the change of the business cycle, looking for some company will have outstanding 
performance, even when the economy is on the slide." He seeks changes there are four specific 
performance: 
1．灾难性变化。通常情况是，当一个行业处在危机之中时，随着两三个主要公司的破产，
或处在破产边缘，该整个行业在准备着一次反弹，只要改变整个基础的情势存在。中国的
纺织行业也许正符合这种变化。
1. The catastrophic change. Usually, when an industry in crisis, with two or three major the 
bankruptcy of the company, or at the edge of bankruptcy, the whole industry in preparing a 
rebound, as long as there is change the basic situation. Maybe is in keeping with the change of 
China's textile industry. 
2．现在正红火的行业，也许已暗藏了变坏的因素。这就是所说的“树不会长到天上去”。
对于这种行业的股票，罗杰斯的通常做法是做空。做空前，一般要经过仔细研究，因为有
些价位很高的股票也还会继续走高。
2. Is now booming industry, may have hidden the bad factors. This is known as "trees don't grow 
to the sky". For this kind of the stock of the industry, the common way of Rogers is short. Do an 
unprecedented, typically after careful study, because some stocks with high prices will continue 
to go up. 
3．对于政府扶持的行业，他会作为重点投资对象。由于政府的干预，这些行业都将会有很
大的变化。他在某一国家投资时，也往往会把政府支持行业的股票全部买下。
(3) for the government to support the industry, he will act as a key investment objects. Because 
of government intervention, the industry will have a big change. He was in a state investment, 
also tend to buy all the stock in the government support industry. 
4．紧跟时代发展，瞄准那些有潜力的新兴行业。70 年代当妇女们开始崇尚“自然美”，
放弃甚至根本不化妆时，罗杰斯研究了雅芳实业的股票，并认定尽管当时雅芳的市盈率超
过 70 倍，但发展趋势已定，公司最终还是不行。他以 130 美元的价格做空，一年后，以低
于 25 美元的价格平了仓。
4. Follow the time development, aimed at those who have the potential of the emerging industry. 
When women began to advocate "natural beauty" in the 70 s, even when making up, give up the 
Avon industrial stocks, Rogers studied and concluded that despite the Avon's p/e ratio of more 
than 70 times, but is the development trend, the company finally or not. He paid $130 short, a 
year later, at less than $25 flat to the warehouse. 
从上述这四种变化，从实质上讲，还是供求关系的变化在起作用。罗杰斯说：“致富的关
键就在于正确把握供求关系，共产主义者、华盛顿和其他任何人都不能排斥这条法则。”
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
罗杰斯用石油工业的例子来证明这一道理。20 世纪 70 年代石油价格上涨带来了一系列连
带反应，一般人都感觉是石油输出国组织使之上涨的。但他却说，从 1960 年起，石油输出
国组织每年都想抬升原油的价格，但是，从来没有成功过，价格总是再一次往下跌。真正
的原因要追溯到 19 世纪 50 年代。当时最高法院判定美国政府可以管制天然气的价格。政
府管制的结果使得价格低到生产天然气根本没有利润了。到 20 世纪 50 年代末及整个 60 年
代，美国还很少有天然气井。但是，与此同时，消费者却越来越认识到天然气作为燃料具
有很大的优越性，它比石油或煤炭更便宜和更干净。这样，居民也渐渐地转向了天然气，
但天然气的开采却正在急剧下降。到 70 年代初，许多天然气公司已经没什么可供应的了。
罗杰斯调查了一系列的钻井公司，了解到他们的商业条件很差。罗杰斯认为，让这些石油
公司破产，并且停止全国范围内的家庭天然气消费是不可想像的。于是他买了油井的股票
和这一行业的所有其他东西。不久以后，石油和天然气开始疯涨。无论如何，接下来，"树
不会长到天上去"的结果出现了。当石油从每桶 2．8 美元涨到每桶 40 美元时。整个国家都
在从事节能运动：房屋隔热，更小型的轿车，效率高的设备。同时，石油、天然气的开采
也进步很大。在这两个因素的影响下供求关系又开始向反方向转化，石油、天然气及其股
票的价格下跌了。
From the above four kinds of change, from the essence, or changes in supply and demand at 
work. Rogers said: "to get rich is the key lies in the correct grasp of supply and demand, the 
communists, Washington, d.c., and anyone else can't reject the rule." Rogers in petroleum 
industry of examples to prove this point. Rising oil prices in the 1970 s brought a series of knock-
on effects, it is generally felt is the organization of petroleum exporting countries make up. But 
he said that since 1960, the organization of petroleum exporting countries each year to lift the 
price of crude oil, but never succeed, the price is always down again. The real reason goes back 
to the 1850 s. Supreme Court ruled that the U.S. government could control the price of natural 
gas. The result of the government regulation make the price low to gas production have no profit. 
By the late 1950 s and the 60 s, the United States also have few natural gas Wells. But, at the 
same time, consumers are increasingly realize the natural gas as a fuel has great superiority, it is 
more cheaper than oil or coal and cleaner. So, residents also gradually turned to natural gas, but 
it was a sharp drop in natural gas exploration. To the early 70 s, many gas companies already 
have nothing to supply. Rogers survey a series of drilling companies, to know their business 
conditions is very poor. Rogers said, let the oil companies go bankrupt, and stop the nationwide 
family gas consumption is unthinkable. So he bought a stock and the industry of well all the other 
things. Soon after, oil and natural gas began to rise. No matter how, then, the result of "trees 
don't grow to the sky". When oil from $2.8 a barrel to $40 a barrel. The whole country is engaged 
in energy conservation movement: building insulation, smaller cars, high efficiency of equipment. 
At the same time, the extraction of oil, natural gas has made great progress also. Under the 
influence of the two factors of supply and demand began to reverse direction, oil, natural gas 
and its stock price fell. 
 
 
黄金
gold 
1990 年 6 月罗杰斯旅行经过伯力时，发现西伯利亚人疯狂抢购黄金饰品，这激起了罗杰斯
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
的好奇心，他为了弄清黄金对苏联有多重要，去见了当地金矿开采组织的头目伊果
&S226;索斯宁。这样一个矿产组织的老板在美国也许算不了什么，可在苏联就不可同日而
语了，他在苏联就相当于美国微软的比尔&S226;盖茨。
In June 1990, Rogers trip through the "force found the Siberian people snapping up gold 
ornaments, which stimulate the curiosity of Rogers, how important is he to detect gold against 
the Soviet union, went to see the local gold mining group leader igor & role; Sotheby's is better. 
Such a mining group, the boss of perhaps nothing in the United States, but in the Soviet union is 
a far cry from, he is equivalent to the United States of the Soviet union Microsoft's bill & role; 
Gates. 
罗杰斯对一个国家的经济运行状况很感兴趣，这也许就是他多年来国际投资养成的习惯，
也是一种职业敏感。他和伊果&S226;索斯宁谈论黄金和其他商品，以此来了解 20 世纪的苏
联所赖以生存的是什么。
Rogers to the economy of a country is very interested in running status, perhaps this is he a habit 
for years, international investment, is also a kind of occupation sensitive. He and igor & role; 
Sotheby's rather talk about gold and other commodities, in order to understand what is depend 
by the Soviet union in the 20th century. 
罗杰斯认为黄金生产是受供求关系影响的，第二次世界大战后，1 盎司 35 美元的黄金价格
保持了 37 年。随着时间的推移，这个价位变得偏低了。因此黄金的生产持续减退很多年。
大约 37 年的时间里，人们不太愿意去淘金，开采金矿。世界市场上的大多数黄金来自南非
和俄罗斯，因此这些地方开采金子的成本很低。由于金子价位偏低，黄金开始被广泛用于
日常生活，比如，用于牙齿和电子。用的多了以后就出现了供小于求的现象，于是黄金就
开始涨价了，“天下没有不散的宴席”。罗杰斯说贯穿他整个投资生涯的一条高于一切的
原则就是：不管赌什么，永远跟中央银行相反，永远跟现实世界一致。70 年代，中央银行
在维护黄金的低价位，价格往往是根荒唐的，市场也知道它们是荒唐的。罗杰斯认为每当
中央银行在维护某种东西的低价值(黄金也不例外)时，聪明的投资者就会反其道而行之，
在这个价位不断买入，虽然不会立竿见影，但成功总不会太远。回报一定很丰厚。35 年后，
黄金的价格终于放开时，他的上涨幅度远超过了它的应有水平，因为它长时间地被限制在
低价。罗杰斯的投资法则被验证了。
Mr Rogers believes gold production is affected by supply and demand, after the second world 
war, $35 an ounce of gold price for 37 years. As time goes on, the price becomes low. Therefore, 
gold production continues to decline for many years. About 37 years, people are reluctant to go 
for gold, gold mining. Most of the gold from South Africa and Russia on the world market, so 
these places the cost of extracting gold is very low. Due to the gold price is low, gold began to be 
widely used in daily life, for example, used in teeth and electronics. With more then appeared 
the phenomenon of demand is less than the supply, then began to rise in price of gold, "there is 
no such thing as a good things come to an end". Rogers said throughout his entire investment is 
one of the overriding principle is: no matter what gambling, always with the central bank, on the 
other hand, consistent with real world forever. In the 70 s, the central bank in the maintenance 
of the low price of gold, the price is often the root absurd, the market also know that they are 
ridiculous. Rogers believe that when central Banks in the maintenance of a low value of 
something is no exception (gold), smart investors will do exactly the opposite, in this price to buy, 
although not immediately, but success will not be too far away. Must be very rewarding. 35 years 
later, when the price of gold has finally let go, he rose far more than it should be level, because it 
was a long time will be limited to a low price. Rogers investment law is verified. 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
罗杰斯认为供求就是价格。价格表述的是供应和需求相交并持续的那个点。所以黄金的投
资者只需搞清楚供应和需求，而不用关心淘金或购金的狂潮，就会成为巨富。但很多人都
搞不明白这一点。揭开黄金市场的面纱，拿出商品的曲线图就会发现，从 1980 年开始，黄
金产量在 45 年中第一次在世界范围内上去了，从此以后，世界黄金量呈逐年上升趋势。因
为投产一个金矿需要相当长的时间，从有人决定去淘金到选矿再到筹集资金，所有的准备
工作完成需几年的时间。随着供应越来越多，黄金又将达到他和的那一天，这完全由供求
来决定。罗杰斯预测的黄金饱和的那一天终于在 1999 年到来了，世界范围的金价开始下跌。
Mr Rogers believes the supply and demand is price. Prices stated is the point of the intersection 
of supply and demand and continuously. So gold investors need to understand the supply and 
demand, and don't care about gold or buying spree, will become rich. But a lot of people don't 
understand this. Curve of uncovered the veil of the gold market, take out the goods, starting 
from 1980, gold production in the world for the first time in 45 years up, since then, there is an 
upward trend in the world gold amount. Because the production of a gold mine need quite a 
long time, from someone decided to go for gold to separation and then to raise funds, all ready 
to work a few years time to complete. As the supply is becoming more and more gold and will 
reach him and that one day, this is completely determined by supply and demand. Rogers 
predicted gold saturation that day has finally arrived in 1999, the world gold prices began to fall. 
罗杰斯始终认为黄金的购买与其他的商品的买卖一样都受市场的运作规律支配着，沿着一
个稳定的价格波动。由于供求平衡被打破了，黄金的价格开始上涨，其价格上涨有其合理
和合法的原因。一般的公众当看到某块地或某种股票上涨了就知道可以从中大捞一笔，于
是就有更多的人跟进，同时还做着发财的美梦。买得早的聪明人会选择一个合适的高价位
卖掉他手中的黄金(或股票。房地产)而因此美梦成真，而另一部分人则成全了别人的美事，
而自己却高位套牢。当有很多人高位买进时，此时的供求平衡又将被打破，新一轮的下跌
又将开始，买进～上涨～买进一卖出～下跌，市场就是这样在价值规律的支配下运行着，
轮回着。黄金这一特殊商品也不例外。
Rogers always think gold buying and other buying and selling of goods are dominated by market 
operation rule, along a stable price fluctuations. Due to the supply and demand balance is 
broken, began to rise in the price of gold, the price rise has its reasonable and legitimate reason. 
The general public when you see a plot of land or a shares rose knew to clean up, so there will be 
more people to follow up, also do a dream of getting rich. Early to buy the smart people will 
choose a suitable high prices to sell his gold (or stocks, real estate) and so a dream come true, 
and others help others happy, high lock-in on yourself. When there are a lot of people bought 
the balance of supply and demand will be broken again at this time, a new round of fall will start 
again, buy ~ up to buy a sell to fall, the market is in the law of value under the domination of the 
running, reincarnation. Gold this particular commodity is no exception. 
从另一个角度来看，黄金几千年来一直是传统的保值手段。但是，它可能会在某个相当长
的时期内落后于购买力。它在恶性通货膨胀的情况下本应该能够保值，但是，它今天不能
保值的方式与 70 年代是不同的，因为在 21 世纪可能还存在着其他更好的保值手段，罗杰
斯还不能确定它是什么。
From another perspective, gold for thousands of years has been the traditional store of value. 
However, it may be a fairly long period of time behind the purchasing power. It in the case of 
hyperinflation Ben should be able to hold their value, but it not hold their value today is different 
from the way and the 70 s, because in the 21st century may be there are other better store of 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
value, Rogers is not sure what it is. 
 
钻石与南非
With the South African diamond 
“钻石恒久远，一颗永流传”的广告宣传给我们留下了深刻的印象，仿佛钻石成了情感的
见证，适逢订婚、结婚和特别的纪念日总需要一颗钻石来寄托感情。这一广告就是南非最
大的采矿公司戴比尔斯做的，该公司不仅垄断了南非的钻石还通过控制供应逐步主宰了全
球价格。
"Diamonds are forever, a forever" in the advertisement left a deep impression on us, if to 
become emotional testimony, diamond in an engagement, marriage and special day always need 
a diamond to their feelings. This advertising is South Africa's largest mining company, DE beers 
do the company not only monopolized the South African diamond by controlling the supply also 
gradually dominate the global prices. 
提起钻石，大家就会不自觉地想到南非，南非不仅物产丰富，资源充裕，同时它还是一个
资产雄厚、气候宜人、市场巨大、基础设施完善的国家。虽然长期饱受种族冲突和国内骚
乱的影响，但无论从地理、气候、幅员赝源及潜力等多方面来讲，南非都是一个吸引国际
性投资者的国家。
Mention diamonds, everyone will not consciously think of South Africa, South Africa is not only 
rich products, abundant resources, at the same time it is also a assets, pleasant climate, huge 
market and abundant infrastructure. Has long suffered from racial conflicts, and the influence of 
domestic unrest, but no matter from the geography, climate, size constraint source and potential 
aspects of speaking, South Africa is a country to attract international investors. 
罗杰斯在南非周边国家的投资都有南非的因素在内，罗杰斯认为南非对于一个理性投资者
来说，当它的种族冲突达到高潮，所有投资者都逃离时，可能正是买进南非货币(兰德)之
日。由于政治局势不稳定，罗杰斯虽然对南非非常感兴趣，但他所做的也只有等待。因为
他知道一般投资者最爱犯的一个错误是相信他们必须不停地做点什么，把闲散资金投放到
什么地方去。实际上，对投资者来说，最糟糕的事情莫过于在某一笔投资上赚到了大钱，
于是他们不禁欣喜若狂，得意非凡，对自己说：“好吧，现在我再把钱投到另一个地方去。
”其实他们只需把钱存入银行，什么也别干，耐心地等待下一个机会，可他却急不可待地
又把钱投了出去。也许这一次会赔进本钱。投资的诀窍是不赔钱，如果你的钱年年都有赢
利，这往往要比那些起伏不定的投资者挣得多，因为他们虽赚过钱，可他们会有血本无归
的时候。赔本往往会断送生意，大伤元气，赢利是投资的精髓。
Rogers investment in South Africa's neighboring countries have the factors of South Africa, Mr 
Rogers believes South Africa for a rational investor, when its culmination of ethnic conflict, all 
investors to flee, perhaps it is to buy South African currency (rand). Due to the unstable political 
situation, Rogers, though very interested in South Africa, but what he has done only wait. 
Because he knew that the general investors love make a mistake is to believe that they have to 
constantly do something, the idle money where to go. In fact, for investors, the worst thing is 
made a lot of money on an investment, so they can not help but ecstatic, with great pleasure, 
said to himself: "ok, now I'll put my money to go to another place." They need to deposit your 
money with the bank, what also don't dry, patiently waiting for the next opportunity, but he was 
very anxious and put the money out. Perhaps this time will pay into the capital. Investment tips is 
not losing money, if your money the profit year after year, this often than those investors earn 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
more ups and downs, because they are made of money, but they will be wiped out. At a loss 
tends to terminate business, big hurt, the essence of profit is to invest. 
由于钻石和黄金的发现，迫使资本家们修建基础设施以获取利润。这些良好的公路、高速
路、电话线、电力和充足的供求系统给南非未来的发展奠定了基础。
Because of the discovery of diamonds and gold, forcing the capitalists build infrastructure in 
order to get profit. These good roads, highways, telephone lines, power and plenty of supply and 
demand system for South Africa's future development laid a solid foundation. 
在过去的五六十年里，戴尔比斯成功地把钻石的价格抬到一个过高的水平，实际上绝没有
这么高的经济价值。纵观历史，绿宝石、蓝宝石和红宝石的价值在许多文化中比钻石高，
钻石之所以成为宝石之最，是与戴尔比斯的垄断分不开的。历史上戴尔比斯一直 100％地
控制着钻石的生产和销售。罗杰斯认为，在今后对年里，钻石的价格将比现在低。所以说
钻石是不值得投资的。之所以这样认为，还是供求关系在起作用。戴尔比斯把钻石的价格
定得很高，激励人们去寻找钻石。为了维持高价，他必须买断所有生产商提供给他们的钻
石，如果不这样，生产商就会把钻石卖给别人，因为别人出的价钱比戴尔比斯高。另一方
面，戴尔比斯无休止地买钻石，这样需要花很多的钱，总有一天会把钱花光，不能再继续
买下去。不管是出现哪种情况都会使钻石下跌。人为的控制价格是不能长久的，无论控制
者是政府官僚或资本家。供求关系起着很关键的作用。价值规律是不以人的意志为转移的。
罗杰斯建议卖掉钻石，买入绿宝石、红宝石和蓝宝石。
Over the past five hundred and sixty years, dell is successfully put the diamond prices up to a 
higher level, in fact no such high economic value. Throughout history, the value of an emerald, a 
sapphire and ruby in many cultures is higher than diamond, diamond is a precious stones, is with 
dell monopoly is inseparable. In the history of dell, has 100% to control the production and sales 
of diamond. Rogers believes that in the future for years, diamond price will be lower than now. 
So the diamond is not worth the investment. So think, or supply and demand relations at work. 
Dell than the high price of diamond, inspire people to look for diamonds. In order to maintain 
high prices, he must buy out all manufacturers to provide them with the diamond, if not, 
producers can sell diamonds to others, because the price is higher than dell than others. On the 
other hand, dell is endless to buy diamond, so need to spend a lot of money, one day it will 
spend all the money, can't continue to buy. Whether what kind of situation will make diamonds 
fell. Artificial control price is not long, regardless of the controller is a government bureaucracy 
or capitalists. Supply and demand plays a critical role. Law of value is not for man's will. Rogers 
suggested selling diamonds, buying an emerald, ruby and sapphire. 
 
吸引投资、发展经济
Attracting investment and economic development 
罗杰斯对一个国家的基础设施很看重，并把此作为一个国际投资的因素考虑在内。南非就
是一个很好的例子，它的基础设施可以与很多国家相媲美。罗杰斯认为资本家投资发展基
础设施比政府要可靠的多。因为资本家是以赚取最大利润为目的的，只要有利可图，他们
就会修路、通电、引水。塞色尔&S226;罗德兹及其同伙为了寻找黄金和钻石在南非修建了
这些基础设施。这些基础设施最初修建是资本家获取利润的途径，但基础设施的最大受益
者则是所在国，南非因此而繁荣。
R value of a country's infrastructure, and put it as a international investment into account. South 
Africa is a good example, its infrastructure can be comparable with many countries. Mr Rogers 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
believes the capitalist development infrastructure investment is more reliable than the 
government. Because the capitalist is to earn maximum profit for the purpose of, as long as 
profitable, they will build roads, electricity, water diversion. The plug color, & role; Harold and his 
accomplices in search of gold and diamonds in South Africa to build the infrastructure. The 
infrastructure construction is the way of the capitalists profit initially, but the biggest beneficiary 
of infrastructure is the country, South Africa and prosperity. 
罗杰斯认为资本的运作就像“人往高处走，水往低处流”一样，哪里的回报高，就流向哪
里，它不管你是白人还是黑人，是社会主义者或资本主义者，基督徒或穆斯林，它只在乎
安全性和利润。只要有机会，就会有资本的存在。19 世纪的美国和今天的西伯利亚差不多，
但有的是机会，没有货币控制，没有移民政策，没有各种限制性政策。于是欧洲人把钱不
断输送进去，并赚得丰厚的利润，企业家大举外债发展美国的基础设施，修铁路和运河，
兴建城市和工厂。同时受益者美国也在 20 世纪得到了回报，成为富甲一方的超级大国。
Mr Rogers believes the capital operation is like "man struggles upwards; water flows 
downwards", where the high returns, will flow to where, it is no matter you are white or black, is 
a socialist or capitalist, christians or muslims, it only CARES about security and profit. As long as 
there is an opportunity, there will be the existence of capital. As Siberia and of America in the 
nineteenth century today, but there are plenty of opportunities, no monetary control, no 
immigration policy, not all kinds of restrictive policy. So europeans continue in the money and 
earn profits, entrepreneurs heavily in infrastructure development in the United States foreign 
debt, railways and canals, the construction of cities and factories. Beneficiaries at the same time 
the United States in the 20th century paid off, as rich as croesus superpower. 
为了吸引国外资本，一个开放的国家应该怎样做呢？使私有财产合法化(因为财富只有适当
的聚集才能产生推动生产力发展的能量，平均主义只能滋生懒惰)，向每个人适当地征税，
让货币自由兑换，使混乱的局面很快好转，秩序稳定下来，形成一个良好的投资环境。钱
用来投资还是用来消费就有了一个很明确的答案。
In order to attract foreign capital, an open country should be how to do? Legalizing private 
property (because wealth is only appropriate to gather to produce energy to promote the 
development of productivity, only lazy) breeds in egalitarianism, taxing everyone properly, and 
let the currency freely convertible and quickly responded to the chaos, order stabilized, forming 
a good investment environment. Money to investment or to consumption have a very clear 
answer. 
 
 
中国
China 
罗杰斯认为到 21 世纪早期的某个时候，中国的经济会跃居世界第一(不是指人均水平)，之
所以这样认为是和罗杰斯对中国的了解(通过四次旅行)有密切的关系。
Mr Rogers believes to sometime in the early 21st century, China's economy will become the 
world's first (not average), so considered and Rogers knowledge of China (through four trips) has 
a close relationship. 
中国人有着相当悠久的经商传统，这可以追溯到罗马时代。21 世纪的中国将是世界上最发
达、最富有的国家。香港的发展已在这块土地上生了根，它的影响正飞快地向北延伸。广
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
东人的脑子里塞满了生意经，改革开放和市场经济让这些南方人先富了起来。中西部受其
影响，正在发生巨大的变化。
Chinese has a long tradition of doing business, this can be traced back to Roman times. In 21st 
century China will be the most developed, the richest country in the world. The development of 
Hong Kong has taken root in the land, its influence to the north is quickly. Guangdong people's 
heads filled with business, reform and opening-up and market economy make the southerners 
cashing up. Affected by the Midwest is undergoing great changes. 
中国有很多海外华人，他们大多都是从南方省份移居出去的，他们中有一大部分成功者，
有很多富商。没有人知道华侨到底有多少，他们遍布全球(泰国、新加坡、澳大利亚、加拿
大、美国)，马来西亚有 30%的人口是华人。中国对海外华侨永远是欢迎的，即使是第三代
华裔，从来都不知道怎样使用筷子，从来没听过一句广东话，但对中国人来说，你也是一
个中国人，中国随时都欢迎你回来，并且会及时给你一本护照。海外华侨是中国人的一笔
巨大财富，很多海外华人有资金、有技术，想回国做点事情，支援中国大陆建设或是投资
赚钱。这给中国的改革开放和经济发展注入了新鲜的血液。
China has a lot of overseas Chinese, most of them are from the southern provinces moved out, 
one of the most successful, there are a lot of businessmen. No one knows how many overseas 
Chinese, they are all over the world (Thailand, Singapore, Australia, Canada, the United States), 
Malaysia has 30% of the population are Chinese. China's overseas Chinese is always welcome, 
even if is the third generation of Chinese, never know how to use chopsticks, never heard a word 
of cantonese, but for the Chinese, you are a Chinese, welcome back at any time in China, and will 
give you a passport in time. Overseas Chinese are a great wealth of the Chinese people, a lot of 
overseas Chinese capital, technology, wanted to do something to return, support construction of 
mainland China or invest to make money. This to China's reform and opening up and economic 
development has injected fresh blood. 
罗杰斯认为一个谨慎的西方投资者应该这样开发中国的经济：如果你想在中国做生意，就
应该找个中国公司为你在中国经营，比如说，假设某公司宣布打算直接大规模进人中国市
场，那罗杰斯很可能想卖空它的股票；但是假如它同一个已经在中国做得很成功的一个海
外华人的公司挂上钩，比如说是一个在泰国或新加坡的证券市场上的上市公司，那罗杰斯
就可能很乐意购买这家公司或是那家海外华人公司的股票。
Mr Rogers believes a cautious western investors should be development of China's economy: if 
you want to do business in China, you should find a Chinese company operating in China for you, 
for example, suppose a company has announced plans to directly on a large scale in the Chinese 
market, that Mr Rogers is likely to want to sell its shares; But if it's the same in China have been 
very successful a company of the overseas Chinese, for example a in Thailand or Singapore listed 
companies, securities market that Rogers could very happy to buy shares in the company or the 
overseas Chinese company. 
罗杰斯始终认为中国人是勤劳、聪明的，他环球旅行经过很多个国家，并且拿其中一部分
同中国比较，并且指出有很多棘手的问题到中国人手里就会被巧妙地解决好。这也许才是
很多海外华人之所以成功的根本，是中华民族的特色。同时他还对中国的计划生育政策产
生了思考，因为中国历史上没有实施过这一政策。他说：不管怎样说，中国是一个农业大
国，人们总想多要几个孩子好在地里多几个帮手，老了以后也有个指望，孩子成了父母的
养老保险。计划生育政策下的独生子女会不会个个都被惯得很自私从而改变中国人的特征
呢？并且将来全部由这样的人组成的一个民族会不会比现在这些勤劳的中国人更加努力工
作呢？这些都值得思考，但同时也有很多研究表明独生子女和长子一样大多具有成功的倾
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
向。但愿这种倾向更多一些。
Rogers always think Chinese people are hardworking, intelligent, he to travel around the world 
through a number of countries, and take some of the comparison with China, and points out that 
there are a lot of difficult problems to the hands of the Chinese will be cleverly solved. This may 
be a lot of overseas Chinese the fundamentality of success, is characteristic of the Chinese nation. 
At the same time he also have a thinking on China's family planning policy, because in the history 
of Chinese did not implement the policy. Anyway, "he said," China is an agricultural country, 
people always want more children in the field a few more helpers, also have a hope when she 
was old, children become parents of endowment insurance. Under the family planning policy of 
the one-child can all be used up very selfish to alter the characteristics of the Chinese people? 
And all is made up of such people in the future of a nation will these hard-working Chinese 
people work harder than now? These are worth thinking about, but at the same time also has a 
lot of studies have shown that the one-child most as the eldest son has a tendency to success. I 
wish this tendency. 
 
北美自由贸易区
The north American free trade area 
罗杰斯认为美国你拿大和墨西哥应签署北美自由贸易协定，这样更有利于 3 个国家的发展。
自由贸易成功的最有说服力的例子是大英帝国，英国人给殖民地带去资本、市场、管理和
技术知识，而殖民地则提供劳动力、自然资源和市场。1991 年，在墨西哥北部的工业区有
50 万墨西哥人为美国公司工作。墨西哥低廉的劳动力成本使美国每年与墨西哥之间的贸易
顺差并不是一个很小的数字。据美国商业部估算，美国每出口 10 亿美元就能支持 2 万人就
业，比如通用电器对墨西哥 17．5 亿美元的出口就支持了 1．5 刀人就业。随着墨西哥继续
发展并消除保护主义，美国还会卖给它更多的产品，尤其是汽车、电脑、医疗设备和机床
等高技术产品；就拿汽车来说吧，墨西哥每 16 人才有一辆车，而美国每 2 人就有一辆。这
样的话，如果有了自由贸易协定将会给美国带来更大协机会。墨西哥在最终摆脱中央集权
的限制之后会有很大发展，随着规模的不断扩大，它将需要大力发展基础设施，这又给美
国带来了机会。
Mr Rogers believes the Canadian and Mexican you should sign the north American free trade 
agreement, it is more advantageous to the development of the three countries. Free trade 
success is the most compelling example of the British empire, the British colony to bring capital, 
market, management and technical knowledge, while the colony provide labor, natural resources 
and markets. In 1991, in the industrial zone in northern Mexico 500000 Mexican people to work 
for the company. Mexico's low labor costs lead to trade surplus between each year in the United 
States and Mexico is not a small number. According to the U.S. department of commerce 
estimates that $1 billion per export can support 1 billion people in the United States employment, 
such as general electric exports to Mexico $1.75 billion will support $1.5 people jobs. Continue to 
develop and eliminate protectionism as Mexico, the United States will sell more products to it, 
especially cars, computers, medical equipment and machine tools of high technology products; 
Let's take cars for example, Mexico every 16 people have a car, and every two people in the 
United States there is a car. So, if you have a free trade agreement will bring us more 
opportunities. Mexico after finally liberated from the constraints of centralization will have great 
development, with the expansion of the scale, it will need to develop the infrastructure, which in 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
turn gives us a chance. 
从长远看，北美自由贸易区把 3 个天然的贸易伙伴联系在了一起。美国提供资金、市场、
管理和技术，加拿大有自然资源，而墨西哥则有充裕的劳动力和正在扩大的市场。
In the long run, the north American free trade area of the three natural trading partners together. 
Finance, market, management and technology in the United States, Canada has natural 
resources, while Mexico has abundant labor force and expanding market. 
令罗杰斯担心的是北美自由贸易区与欧洲共同市场还有区别，共同市场的国家有的财力雄
厚，而有的则举步维艰。可是由于北美自由贸易区而绑在一起的是美国、墨西哥和加拿大，
世界上 3 个最大的债务国。这虽然是个使 3 国都受益的好计划，但这样把 3 个这么大的破
产实体绑在一起还没有人做过。罗杰斯比喻这件事情最终也许会演变为 3 个醉汉互相倚靠
着跌跌撞撞而又徒劳地试图寻找回家的路。但总的说来这一协定将使三者都受益。
That Rogers was concerned about the north American free trade area and the European 
common market and the difference, the common market countries some deep pockets, while 
others are struggling. But due to the north American free trade area and is tied to the United 
States, Mexico and Canada, the world's three biggest debtor. Although it's a good plan to benefit 
the three countries, but it tied three so big bankrupt entity together and no one has done. 
Rogers metaphor it may eventually become three drunks leaning against each other the 
stumbling and vainly tried to find the way home. But in general this agreement will benefit all. 
如果这 3 个国家都尝试独自重新结盟并为与世界其他国家的贸易制造障碍。这样将会像共
同市场一样，使各自丧失竞争力，并且失去一个学习怎样与世界上其他国家进行成功的竞
争的机会。
If the three countries are trying to realigned alone and make barriers for trade with the rest of 
the world. It will be like a common market, makes people lose their competitiveness, and lose a 
learning how to successfully compete with other countries in the world. 
 
美国
The United States 
两年多的环球旅行，罗杰斯亲眼看到世界各国经济的繁荣与衰退，中央集权的管制给众多
国家带来的后果，回到美国，当人们问他美国怎么样时，他说美国是个卖空。罗杰斯认为
最令人可怕的是政党既没有也不愿意解决美国的经济问题。他相信克林顿将是他所在党的
最后一位总统。美国的体制已腐烂，已腐败，并充斥着债务。政客们，不管民主党还是共
和党，多年来一直奉行降低美元价值和使其贬值的政策。罗马人用了 400 年，西班牙人用
了 200 年，英国人用了兀年降低币值的速度也不及我们在数十年贬值的速度。政府的管理
者不在乎，而联邦储备宁愿救政客也不愿救货币。罗杰斯说他看美元没有多大希望。美国
是世界上最大的债务国。他说如果在生产领域投资，就像 19 世纪美国做得那样，那情形还
不会太糟。但投资却用在了政府津贴、战争、对马海毛和蔗糖这类农作物的农业补贴、利
息偿付、坦克和洲际导弹上了，以上这些方面没有一个能增加未来的生产力。在二战结束
后的 50 多年里，美国的军队仍然占领着欧洲和日本，年耗费 1500 亿美元。
More than two years to travel around the world, Rogers saw prosperity and recession of world 
economy, the consequences of a centralized control for many countries, returned to the United 
States, when people asked him how he United States, he said the United States is a short. Mr 
Rogers believes is the most terrible party neither is not willing to solve the economic problems of 
the United States. He believes that President Clinton will be the last one his party. Americans 
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
have system is rotten, corrupt, and filled with debts. Politicians, regardless of whether a 
democrat or a republican, has for years been pursuing a policy of reducing the value of the dollar 
and make its depreciation of the. The Romans used for 400 years, spaniards took in 200, the 
British used upright years reduce the speed of the currency is not as good as our in decades the 
speed of the devaluation. The government managers don't care, and the federal reserve would 
rather save politicians want to save money. Rogers said he see $not much hope. The United 
States is the world's biggest debtor. He said that if the investment in the field of production, like 
19 th-century American do, that the situation is not too bad. But the investment is used in the 
government subsidies, war, and agricultural subsidies for mohair and sucrose such crops, interest 
payments, tanks and intercontinental ballistic missile, none of these aspects above can increase 
the productivity of the future. In more than 50 years after the end of world war ii, the United 
States army still occupied the Europe and Japan, cost 150 billion dollars. 
罗杰斯说：“我们政府此时此刻最主要的关注应是削减不必要的开支以保证预算有稳健的
财政基础。智利使其经济走上正轨所采取的措施应该是个好经验。如果这样一个比我国更
糟的、经济上是个空架子的国家都能在 15 年之内依靠自己的努力改善处境，那么，我们理
应在更短的时间内做同样的事——如果我们有合适的领导层，有足够的耐力的话。”
Rogers said: "at the moment our government's main concern should be to cut unnecessary 
spending to ensure that the budget has a solid financial foundation. Chile to make its economy 
on track measures taken should be a good experience. If such a worse than in China, is a mere 
skeleton on economies can rely on our own efforts to improve the situation in 15 years, so, we 
should be in a shorter period of time to do the same thing - if we have the right leadership, have 
enough endurance." 
他说美国需要改进当前的税收体制，因为这种体制不利于储蓄和投资的税收结构。如你有
幸得到一份工作，你挣的钱要缴税。如果你把一部分钱存人银行或共同基金并得到了利息
或红利，你还得缴税。如果这种投资为你赢得资本收益，那你还得第三次缴税。
He said the United States needs to improve the current tax system, because the system is not 
conducive to saving and investment tax structure. If you are lucky enough to get a job, you earn 
money to pay taxes. If you put the part of the money people bank or mutual funds and interest 
or dividends, you have to pay taxes. If this kind of investment for capital gains, you win the third 
time that you have to pay taxes. 
与美国的做法不同，日本、德国、新加坡等鼓励储蓄和投资，他们不征税，他们征消费税。
而美国则是鼓励消费并征储蓄税。
With the United States, Japan, Germany, Singapore and other encouraging savings and 
investment, and they don't, their consumption. While the United States is to encourage spending 
and tax savings. 
日本的储蓄率高出美国 5 倍。存款愈多意味着投资的资金也愈多。投资的资金愈多就意味
着生产率愈高。生产率愈高就意味着生活水平愈发提高。这体现了一条极为简单、浅显易
懂的自然经济法则：你对这种东西征税，你得到的这种东西就愈少。
The Japanese savings rate 5 times higher than the United States. The more the more savings 
means that investment funds also. The more investment of capital means that the higher the 
productivity. The more higher productivity means increasingly improve living standards. This 
reflects a very simple, simple natural economic law: a tax on this stuff, you this kind of thing is 
the less you get. 
罗杰斯认为美国必须废除一切储蓄税和投资税。应扔掉现在那几千页长的税则，而代之以
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
一种固定税。他说：“在这个国家里，大笔的钱和精力都用来与税则和逃税较劲了——当
我们辛辛苦苦实现了 2％的增长时，至少国内生产总值的 1％都花在这方面了。我们可以制
定一份 5 负长的税则，也可以像寄明信片一样把我们的所得税寄缴。我们应将消费税列入
固定税，使得人们感到花钱比存钱更昂贵。然后我们应该取消一系列消费性的政府计划。
华盛顿用于坦克和导弹上的花销太巨大了，这绝对无益于提高未来的生产率，用于转移支
付上的钱也太巨大，也无益于生产率的提高，无益于国家的未来。18 岁的年轻人为什么不
上街抗议呢！”
Mr Rogers believes the United States must abolish all tax tax savings and investments. Now 
should be got rid of that thousands of pages long, tariff and replace it with a fixed tax. He said: 
"in this country, large sums of money and effort to persist with tariff and tax evasion, when we 
worked so hard to achieve the growth of 2%, at least 1% of gross domestic product is spent in 
this area. Can we create a 5 negative long tariff, can also be like postcards to send our income tax 
paid. We should be in fixed tax, consumption tax makes people feel more expensive than saving 
money. Then we should cancel plans to launch a series of consumer government. Washington 
applied to tanks and missiles cost is too huge, this is definitely not improve productivity in the 
future, the money is used to transfer payment is too huge, is also conducive to the improvement 
of productivity, is not conducive to the country's future. 18, why don't young people took to the 
streets!" 
罗杰斯的一条做事原则是：“如果房顶漏水，最好及时修补，否则拖到后来肯定会付出更
大代价。”他认为美国偿还债务并为自己打牢基础的合适的出路就在于私有化，在于卖掉
诸如公共土地、机场、海港和邮局这样的政府财产。例如，内华达州基本上是政府拥有的，
不妨卖掉。还有很多可以卖掉的财产清单。他说世界上很多国家都在这么做，因为私有制
是一个天然的责任制，更易调动人们的积极性。这些观点是罗杰斯环球旅行时目睹了苏联、
扎伊尔等国家的中央集权带来的经济恶果后得出的。
Rogers is one of the guiding principle is: "if the roof leaking, it is better to repair in time, 
otherwise the drag later will pay more cost." He believes that the United States to repay debt 
and stress for yourself a suitable way out lies in private, is to sell such as public land, airports, 
ports and the post office of the government property. Nevada is basically the government owns, 
for example, might as well to sell. There are many can sell property list. He says many countries 
in the world is doing it, because the private ownership is a natural responsibility system, are 
more likely to arouse the enthusiasm of people. When these views are Rogers to travel around 
the world witnessed the centralization of the Soviet union, Zaire, and other countries of the 
economic consequences later. 
罗杰斯说当美国人问他投资哪种货币比较稳定时，他的回答是德国马克、荷兰盾、瑞士法
郎、奥地利先令、新西兰元和新加坡元。他认为中央银行的政策是非常重要的。欧洲货币
被绑在德国联邦银行上，而它的任务就是保持马克坚挺。而美国的联邦储备看来更感兴趣
的是维持短期的平稳而不是对我们的肿胀失控的货币体系进行彻底的大修。那么罗杰斯又
是怎么看待美元的呢？罗杰斯说，美国的财政状况很糟糕，我们将实行货币控制。美国政
府愿意美元下跌，变得不那么值钱，降低美元价值，这样能使美国产品在世界市场上更有
竞争力，美国的钢铁工人有更多的工作，农民的麦子和谷子可以卖得更好。政府鼓励公民
卖掉美元，既然政府似乎也相信美元下跌对国家有好处，那么罗杰斯得出结论把钱存到国
外去是一种爱国行为。但不幸的是，美元将持续下跌，并极有可能失去控制。这样政府会
恼羞成怒，一旦对货币实施控制，货币就会进一步下跌，因为人们都将走私美元。这样美
元下跌后的“生死线”方能出现，于是重新特有美元的机会又来了。
股轩培训班内部资料 请勿外传 内部 VIP QQ群：363026115
Rogers said that when americans ask him what kind of currency do investment more stability, his 
answer was a German mark, Dutch guilders, Swiss franc, Austrian schillings, New Zealand dollar 
and Singapore dollar. He thinks that the central bank's policy is very important. European 
currency is tied to the German federal bank, and its task is to keep a strong mark. And America's 
federal reserve seem more interested in maintaining stable short-term rather than on our 
swelling of monetary system for a thorough overhaul. So how Rogers and see the dollar? Rogers 
said that America's fiscal situation is very bad, we will implement monetary control. The U.S. 
government is willing to fall in the dollar, become less valuable, to reduce the value of the dollar, 
so can make products more competitive in the world market in the United States, the United 
States of the steel workers have more work, wheat and corn farmers can sell better. Government 
encourages citizens to sell dollars, since the government seems also believe that the fall in the 
dollar is good for the country, then Rogers came to the conclusion put the money to go abroad is 
a patriotic act. But, unfortunately, the dollar will continue to fall, and are likely to lose control. So 
the government would become angry from embarrassment, once the monetary control, currency 
will fall further, because people will smuggle $. This "death" will appear after the fall in the dollar, 
and a new chance to specific dollar again. 
罗杰斯说：“我敦促我所有的美国朋友在外国银行开一个户头，哪怕只是保险起见。其次
是在经纪商或本国银行处购买外汇。人们买人寿保险和汽车保险的时候从未想过真正用它，
但等到你不得不用它时，你庆幸自己有保险。在这个原则基础上，每一个美国人应当放一
些钱在国外。我不知道未来 25 年美元的命运如何，但我清楚过去 25 年美元的情形——和
其他货币相比，美元贬值了三万多。”
Rogers said: "I urge all of my American friends in foreign Banks to open an account, even if it's 
just on the safe side. The second is the broker or its Banks to buy foreign exchange. When people 
buy life insurance and auto insurance never really use it, but when you have it, you are fortunate 
to have insurance. Based on this principle, every American should put some money in a foreign 
country. I don't know the fate of the future $25 years, but I know the dollar over the past 25 
years - compared to other currencies, the value of the dollar more than thirty thousand."